SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Fluminense | 13 | 1 | 18 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 13 | -2 | 18 |
| 12 | Avai | 13 | -4 | 17 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Flamengo | 14 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Fluminense | 13 | 1 | 18 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 13 | -2 | 18 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 42.05%. A draw had a probability of 29.4% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.52%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.27%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (11.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Botafogo | Draw | Fluminense |
42.05% ( -0.04) | 29.35% ( 0.01) | 28.6% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 42.34% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.85% ( -0.01) | 64.15% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.71% ( -0.01) | 83.29% ( 0.01) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.8% ( -0.03) | 30.2% ( 0.03) |
