We expect both sides to take the game to each other from start to finish as victory almost certainly secures their place in the knockout stages. The Malians boast a significantly superior and more-experienced squad and we are tipping them to maintain their perfect start to the tournament.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 41.6%. A win for Gambia had a probability of 31.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (7.49%). The likeliest Gambia win was 1-0 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
