Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 41.5%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (7.12%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 0-1 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Western United would win this match.
