Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 44.08%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 31.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
