Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 52.03%. A win for Karlsruher SC had a probability of 25.49% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Karlsruher SC win was 1-2 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
